Yeah, I think the MAGAs will run mostly with the unfortunate garbled school shooter phrase, mostly because the eternally 12 year old bully Donald Trump seems to think it was some sort of fatal gotcha moment and not a facially nonsensical mis-speak. Ironically, I think this will mostly squander some generally skillful sanewashing BS from Vance.
Kamala’s campaign on the other hand will get very good mileage out of the refusal to concede that Trump lost on 2020. Somebody on CNN said it would be the best “campaign ad” moment of the debate.
Overall, it is what it is, and it will be impossible to tell how many people will really be swayed by the debate, but I doubt it’s a particularly large number. In particular, “leave abortion to the states” is unlikely to resonate with women in any state with a Republican legislature, including GA, AZ, and NC.
But only if Trump defends him first.