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The 22,600 figure is most likely a severe underestimate of the people murdered by occupation forces in Gaza (and elsewhere, because they’ve been murdering people in the West Bank and Lebanon as well). I shared this in another comment but The Lancet published this which determined there was no evidence that the Gaza Ministry of Health is inflating these statistics, if anything they are being under reported.

As for how many are “actual civilians” the way that is being reported currently heavily favors the narrative of the occupation because the assumption is simply that all males over the age of 13 are combatants, and even using this absurd framing around 61% of those killed are women and children. The occupation forces have proportionately killed more journalists and UN aid workers than in any other conflict in recent history.

History will judge Israel and its supporters harshly.

Israeli soldiers have repeatedly been found using human shields and forcing civilians to risk their lives performing military tasks.

The Lancet is generally regarded as one of the most reputable and trustworthy medical journals. An assessment of the figures from the Gaza Ministry of Health published in the Lancet found that there was no evidence of inflated mortality statistics, and even went beyond that to say that it is considerably more likely that the Gaza Ministry of Health is under reporting the casualties providing the most conservative figures.

If MoH mortality figures were substantially inflated, the MoH mortality rates would be expected to be higher than the UNRWA mortality rates. Instead, the MoH mortality rates are lower than the rates reported for UNRWA staff (5·3 deaths per 1000 vs 7·8 deaths per 1000, as of Nov 10, 2023). Hypothetically, if MoH mortality data were inflated from, for example, an underlying value of 2–4 deaths per 1000, it would imply that UNRWA staff mortality risk is 2·0–3·9 times higher than that of the public. This scenario is unlikely as many UNRWA staff deaths occurred at home or in areas with high civilian populations, such as in schools or shelters.

Mortality reporting is difficult to conduct in ongoing conflicts. Initial news reports might be imprecise, and subsequent verified reports might undercount deaths that are not recorded by hospitals or morgues, such as persons buried under rubble (appendix pp 1–2). However, difficulties obtaining accurate mortality figures should not be interpreted as intentionally misreported data.

Although valid mortality counts are important, the situation in Gaza is severe, with high levels of civilian harm and extremely restricted access to aid. Efforts to dispute mortality reporting should not distract from the humanitarian imperative to save civilian lives by ensuring appropriate medical supplies, food, water, and fuel are provided immediately.

Here’s a link to the source of this quote.

It’s not pessimism. Fascists are already banning books, criminalizing trans people, reversing environmental protections, outlawing abortion and criminalizing those that seek them, rewriting school curricula with historical revisionism and fascist propaganda to suit their needs, perpetrating hate crimes, discriminating against minorities and political opponents, and their media is cranking out fuel for stochastic terrorism day after day. Hell, on the primary debate stage the other day, the candidates were talking about how they would each approach executing people at the border. Of course there was a layer of euphemism, it was about “lethal force in border security”, but a whole hell of a lot of the people on the receiving end of that are migrants and refugees fleeing the conditions american foreign and economic policy has subjected them to.

I have clearly touched a nerve here because there are a lot of upset people downvoting what I’m saying, but I am not being a cynic or a defeatist, I am begging people to reckon with the reality of what is already happening. As I’ve said repeatedly, this trial is literally about how he incited his supporters to attempt overthrowing an election, and people are in here acting as if all that matters is how this might sway voters.

Fascists do not care about democracy, why do you think the GOP spends as much time as it does gerrymandering and messing with voter eligibility, closing polling stations, and purging rolls? They are not going to be voted away, and they are not going to give a fuck about whatever ethics people are just hoping they will abide by. Rules are seen as an obstacle to be overcome, not a boundary which cannot be crossed.

I said this in another reply but I’m going to repeat it here: ask yourself how much of his base are cops and soldiers, and then think about who it is that you’re expecting to step in when his base takes another swing.

If you read what I wrote and thought I was worried about how this would affect votes then you’ve missed the point completely. They do not care about votes or elections, their figurehead is literally on trial for trying to overturn the last one.

This is going to backfire in a big way. Whole lot of people seem to think this will be justice porn or somehow convince his base of his criminality but it is going to do no such thing. According to one poll, the majority (77%) of likely GOP primary voters are already convinced the trial is “politically motivated”, with only 8% more concerned about him attempting to overturn an election. You can take a look at some polling here, there are other even more troublesome results as well: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-poll-indictments-2023-08-20/

No matter how awful, contradictory, and ridiculous he will be in that court room, this is likely going to be a massive boon for Trump, and his followers are going to see it as the realization of their own fears of persecution. This man is an ascendant fascist leader, not the sad sack finally facing consequences that liberals so desperately want him to be, and the effect this will have on mobilizing his base to continue to escalate will be immense. These people do not give a single fuck about “”“law and order”“” no matter how much they pretend they do, stop assuming they will just accept things when he is found guilty. They won’t.

I’m just trying to help people realize how dangerous and precarious this whole situation is. People were laughing and making jokes when he first announced his candidacy, and kept on doing it right up to the point that he won the election. Don’t make the same mistake again, because while yall are cracking jokes, him and his ghouls are hurting people. They are passing discriminatory laws, they are in the supreme court setting dangerous precedents and overturning inconvenient ones, and they are patrolling the streets looking for people to brutalize and throw in jail. They are committing hate crimes and becoming increasingly radicalized and mobilized.

Stop pretending this is entertainment or business as usual, it’s not. I’m begging you to understand that the fascists are already here, and the longer they’re underestimated the better their chances of seizing control.