Lichtman argues he was right in 2000 because his system predicted the popular vote winner, but that means in 2016 he was wrong because Trump didn’t win the popular vote. He then tried to say the keys are now about predicting the electoral college winner, but there wasn’t any change in the keys. He’s just trying to redefine his targets to say he was right after the fact.
Also, his keys aren’t supposed to need frequent reevaluation based on fine-grade events, so if they predict she’d win now, they should have predicted she’d win last month. The only information that’s been revealed is there wasn’t a “primary” challenge for the eventual nominee.
And that’s on coin flips. Many of the last 10 elections weren’t hard to predict.
Child soldiers are an essential bulwark against government tyranny!
The kid was taken alive, so it’s likely he’ll just tell them at some point.
Of all the things to proactively announce you’re different from Biden on, this was the issue she chose? Not saying anything and letting people assume what they’d like has been doing a lot of good work for the campaign, but there are definitely some issues she needs to break on. This wasn’t one of them. Be optimistic while campaigning and let it be killed in the senate like we all know it will.
I see Mr. Maduro and America’s retail corporations have at least one goal in common.
New York doesn’t have a supermajority.
It literally has a supermajority right now. 42-21 in the upper house and 102-48 in the lower house.
“As the Equal Rights campaign has made clear, in order for Prop 1 to be successful it must remain nonpartisan. Democratic leaders and the state party are fully in support of the NY ERA and will continue to follow the strategic guidance of the campaign to ensure its success,” said the Democratic official, who was granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.
Maybe in Kansas, but this is New York where the Democrats have a supermajority. If they think the campaign being associated with the Democratic party will risk its passage, that’s an indictment on them, not some truism of politics. You don’t need conservatives and independents to win votes in New York.
On the other hand, the NY Democratic Party has been spectacularly bad at winning what should be a very easy state with party leadership more worried about keeping the left in check than actually promoting Democratic values.
Yup. He wants to be the most left option in a two party system, so when he runs to be that, he competes in Democratic primaries (both nationally and locally) to clear the lane so he’s not setting up a scenario where the conservative wins because the left is divided.
Of course who knows what the centrist Democrats would have done if he’d won a presidential nomination, but at least Bernie did everything right.
I have no idea what you’re referencing or care anything about your opinion of me. In a post that is otherwise filled with comments where they look like nutcases, you’ve somehow managed to generate one thread where the Stein boosters look like the more informed and politically mature side.
The Council on American–Islamic Relations. They’ve been in the news for years now, due to all the Islamophobia stoked by the right. If you don’t know who they are, that’s kind of on you.
Across an entire nation, they have 140 whole offices. They have more people on their party organizing committee than people in office. None of those 140 are even at the level of state legislature, despite there being many races with unopposed Democrats that only have a few thousand total votes cast in them.
The last election for my state rep had 4,000 votes cast. He had a single opponent from a party I’ve never heard of who got 1,000 of them. There were more candidates running under that low name ID and sparesly funded local party than there were Green candidates. If they were a real party trying to advance progressive causes, this would be an ideal place to build local representation. Single-party state, tons of DINOs to challenge from the left, and low turnout that could make successful challenges possible.
It doesn’t do anything, but neither does voting for a Democratic president in a non-swing state. They could just leave the box blank too. They’re not choosing “should I check the president box or talk to my neighbors”, they’re at the voting booth, presumably because other races matter, and filling in the box because it’s there. None of the options in that race matter and the comment you’re replying to is explicitly about how it doesn’t matter, so why are you even complaining?
As I said, the same old white moderates doing white moderation.
“A big part of the electorate” doesn’t care one way or the other about trans rights. All throughout centrist apologists have been saying “most people don’t care about Palestine enough to affect their vote”, they just want kitchen table progress. But somehow when the issue is trans rights, you people think it’s some vote-defining issue that will sink the election if there’s a single trans speaker in a weeklong convention.
Just the same old fucking white moderates doing the white moderate things King talked about.
And the only time when Biden has seemed to briefly change tact on Israel was when his polling for the upcoming election was suffering. All this philosophy about “don’t make a stink now, it’s only going to get Trump elected” is bullshit, because it very much also might make Democrats decide trans-rights/Palestine actually matter. Quietly storing it away for after the election will do absolutely nothing.
The Chicago one actually is a good read and it’s what the CNN one is based on I think. https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-see-united-states-playing-positive-role-middle-east
It is a good read, specifically “seven in 10 Democrats (68%) and more than half of Independents (54%) support restricting military aid to Israel”.
Bruh
I’m debating whether or not to even engage with you
It was this far in where I didn’t debate and just didn’t read any of this wall of text. I know nothing you’re going to say is at all worth reading, because if it was you would have started differently.
If the question is “do you support Israel”, yeah, but that’s not the question.
https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-see-united-states-playing-positive-role-middle-east