The trend is that when the economy is bad for the average person, it hurts the incumbent.
I don’t think the people whose votes swung the election in Trump’s favor know how tariffs work or what policies Musk has in mind. They don’t even know why eggs are expensive (bird flu); they just know things were cheaper last time Trump was president.
Of course that’s assuming there’s a free and fair election next time around.
A bit of that, a bit of ordinary inflation, and a bit of Putin’s war. I find it unlikely the current president had reasonable options to prevent any of that.