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Cake day: October 19th, 2024

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  • That’s what I’m hoping for. Remember, it’s normal for Repubs to take an early lead because so many of them live in wide open spaces, where counties have such low populations they finish their vote counts very quickly. Democratic votes from larger urban areas come in later. So if there is no such “red mirage” and Kamala takes an early lead, you can start celebrating because this will mean an almost certain win for her.
















  • His fans will listen, and that’s the plan. He did this in 2016 and 2020 - declare victory during the “red mirage” portion of the evening, when he’ll probably be ahead, because Republicans tend to live in low-population areas that finish their counting early because they have fewer ballots. This is a well known phenomenon on national election nights. Democratic votes tend to come in later, because more democrats live in larger urban areas that take longer to count. After Trump declares victory based on these early returns, his fans will go to bed happy. Then when all the votes are in and it turns out he lost, they’ll “know” the election was stolen because in their minds they already “saw” him win.