Blue Origin is just about to launch its reusable heavy-lift ‘New Glenn’ rocket in a few days. Are we about to see a version of Aesop’s tale of ‘The Hare & the Tortoise’ play out, with SpaceX playing the role of the hare?
This Sabine Hossenfelder video does a good job of laying out the argument - Jeff Bezos’ Space Plans Make More Sense Than Elon Musk’s.
In summary, Blue Origin’s plans are built around space stations in near earth orbit, while SpaceX’s plans are for Mars colonization. It’s far more likely Blue Origin’s plans can be realized in the 2030s and 2040s. Apart from China, no one else will have a space station by around 2030 when the ISS goes - there will be no other choice but to look to commercial providers.
Blue Origin’s plans for space stations designed as O’Neill cylinders with artificial gravity are the obvious next step on from ISS-type space stations.
Sorry, a prototype isn’t even close to pulling ahead of in a race where there’s an entity that has routinely been breaking records for numbers of launches each year, and has multiple available formats for doing so, including manned flights to actual space, not just up to the edge. No.
And New Glenn is more equivalent to the already tried and tested Falcon Heavy, while there’s an even bigger, and already flight tested Starship prototype that’s already outclasses it. New Glenn succeeding would effectively be it competing for second at best-years later.
Blue Origin is still far more likely to be successful with a space station long before a Mars colony is remotely viable. The list of challenges SpaceX hasn’t even started to explore in getting a viable Mars colony going is huge.
But the space station has next to nothing to do with a rocket they’re almost ready to test for the first time…
Having an idea you might get to eventually doesn’t make you the leader in anything.
That describes the SpaceX plans for a Mars colony just as well.
You’re the one who brought up the Mars colony. Not me.
I was only talking about the practical, currently existent rocket capabilities. I thought I made that abundantly clear.
No, the original post brought it up. It was kinda the primary argument in the post you responded to at the top of this thread.
If you’re arguing that SpaceX is currently ahead in rocket technology, then I’m not sure who you are arguing against.
“about to pull ahead” is the topic of discussion here.
“About to” is neither far in the future, nor the present. Words have meaning, can you please stick to them?
Words like “You’re the one who brought up the Mars colony.”?
Get off your high horse.
Isn’t it a bit hard to say considering the only thing blue origin has flown to date is the tourist phallus? (Not too successfully either)
The buzz is on because New Glenn just completed a hot fire test and is ostensibly very close to a maiden launch.
Also I’m no fan of baldy’s but in rocket terms New Shepard has been a pretty effective and reliable launcher for what it does.
