Fair, I just think jumping to the conclusion that those folks would have come out to vote for Biden is a stretch when you look at how well his campaign was going. Worth remembering that Harris way outperformed Biden in terms of approval rating, which is a very imperfect metric, but the best one we have for guessing if folks would have come out to vote for Biden but stay home for Harris. In 2020, Biden was a challenger to an incumbent who was botching Covid from both a health and economy perspective. In 2024, he was an incumbent struggling to get out of the shadow of the global post-covid recession and some very unpopular decisions in foreign policy regarding the Middle East. Assuming he would have received 2020 levels of votes is not congruent with those facts
Fair, I just think jumping to the conclusion that those folks would have come out to vote for Biden is a stretch when you look at how well his campaign was going. Worth remembering that Harris way outperformed Biden in terms of approval rating, which is a very imperfect metric, but the best one we have for guessing if folks would have come out to vote for Biden but stay home for Harris. In 2020, Biden was a challenger to an incumbent who was botching Covid from both a health and economy perspective. In 2024, he was an incumbent struggling to get out of the shadow of the global post-covid recession and some very unpopular decisions in foreign policy regarding the Middle East. Assuming he would have received 2020 levels of votes is not congruent with those facts