Former President Donald Trump threatened the NASDAQ on Friday after the stock exchange briefly halted trading on Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns Truth Social.
Oh for sure. It’s effectively been a proxy for election betting since it’s inception. Investors know if he wins it’s a vehicle for people to buy his favour by adding demand pressure. As long as Trump thinks he might win, he has to keep his position.
In a speculative market, which is the reality in which we both exist, share value can absolutely be divorced from a balance sheet. As you’ve pointed out, that is the case here.
So what is the speculative value to an investor? Why ISN’T it zero?
If you have a theory better than “investors believe he’ll use his position as president to increase the value of his own holdings if he wins” I’d be curious to hear it.
Maybe it’s by making presidential decisions contingent on “friendly actions” like buying shares if you’re a foreign nation or even a domestic interest. Maybe he’ll award government communication contracts.
Super interested in an alternative explanation, though.
A: I feel like an actual fascist takeover of America would open the door to more direct bribery like wire transfers of large amounts of funds. If you transfer 10M to him he gets the entire 10M not half.
B: I think people buying it either believe in the theory of utility you outlined or are betting on others perception of the utility more so than direct belief in real value as is common with meme stocks. There is also probably a non trivial percentage which have no reasonable theory of value whatsoever which are making an emotional decision as to investing comparatively small amounts of personal monies.
Oh for sure. It’s effectively been a proxy for election betting since it’s inception. Investors know if he wins it’s a vehicle for people to buy his favour by adding demand pressure. As long as Trump thinks he might win, he has to keep his position.
This is a basic misunderstanding of reality. It’s shitty and useless even for him. If he wins he wont need it.
In a speculative market, which is the reality in which we both exist, share value can absolutely be divorced from a balance sheet. As you’ve pointed out, that is the case here.
So what is the speculative value to an investor? Why ISN’T it zero?
If you have a theory better than “investors believe he’ll use his position as president to increase the value of his own holdings if he wins” I’d be curious to hear it.
Maybe it’s by making presidential decisions contingent on “friendly actions” like buying shares if you’re a foreign nation or even a domestic interest. Maybe he’ll award government communication contracts.
Super interested in an alternative explanation, though.
A: I feel like an actual fascist takeover of America would open the door to more direct bribery like wire transfers of large amounts of funds. If you transfer 10M to him he gets the entire 10M not half.
B: I think people buying it either believe in the theory of utility you outlined or are betting on others perception of the utility more so than direct belief in real value as is common with meme stocks. There is also probably a non trivial percentage which have no reasonable theory of value whatsoever which are making an emotional decision as to investing comparatively small amounts of personal monies.