Web archive: https://archive.ph/q5MRq Joe Biden’s growing political troubles are coming from within his own party as he trails Donald Trump in the battleground states that will decide the 2024 election. That’s the conclusion from the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult Poll of voters in seven swing states. Read the full report here.
This is the third consecutive month Bloomberg News has conducted the swing state poll, and the narrative hasn’t shifted for the president. In fact, it’s gotten worse and the new data only highlights Democratic voters’ deepening dissatisfaction with the White House.
Support among Black voters, a key constituency for Democrats, has dropped since October. Young voters between the ages of 18-34, another core group for the party, aren’t impressed by his attempts to forgive student loans and are much more likely to be critical of his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Selection bias clickbait histrionics
Polls have always bias but the narrative is there and it’s becoming a trend. Biden is loosing the initiative.
The election is not until next November.
And we’ll dismiss any poll that suggests an alteration in course might be necessary until then.
Wait till you see who is standing trial next year.
This far out we don’t know the course.
If I had money I would bet Biden/Harris will announce cannabis reform in the coming months. And I would bet they’ve been planning this announcement since 2020.
We need to try to get these voters back before it’s too late. We need better messaging.
This thread is just gonna be full of namecalling and gloating about how these people have no choice.
We need better messaging.
try better candidates. there’s no messaging in the world that’s going to make up for the whole “we support Israel unconditionally [as they proceed to begin a genocidal campaign]” thing. or the “the economy is GREAT [for billionaires, fuck the normal Americans though.]” thing or the whole “Yeah, we’re just going to ignore everything [Millennials and Gen Z] say…because hey, we know better!” thing.
Biden should have the good sense and integrity to honor his “one term only” promise from last time- and let primaries do their thing.
Okay, now do the counterfactual: if Trump were dictator, what should he do to change the narrative on climate change and also arming Israel unconditionally while clearly agreeing with and advocating for the genocide of Palestinians?
Sometimes I look at Latin American countries and I wonder how they so casually swing between socialists and libertarians. But I get it. Regular people don’t have political principles. It’s basically all about getting yours. And the one who gives more gets the most support, even if the method of giving is undemocratic.
What are you smoking… and where can I get some?
This isn’t about Biden Vs Trump. Trump is awful. we know that. The sole argument for Biden is that he is not Trump. Guess what… there are millions of Americans who are not trump.
being alarmist about trump to defend an objectively awful candidate doesn’t help- you want to beat trump start with the best candidate for the job. But I think you know that Biden isn’t that…because otherwise you’d be ranting about how great he is rather than trying to change the subject.
This isn’t about Biden Vs Trump.
It’s a poll about Biden’s stance with voters as president. It absolutely is about Biden versus Trump.
I think you know that Biden isn’t that…because otherwise you’d be ranting about how great he is rather than trying to change the subject
Word?
Thanks to Biden’s, and definitely not Trump’s or any other Republican’s, American Rescue Plan, Biden increased the Earned-Income Tax Credit for those without children from $543 to $1,502, a $3,000 tax credit per child for children 6 and over, and a $3,600 per child for children under six. As a consequence, he’s done more for childhood poverty than any president within the last 50 years.
Let’s turn to the Inflation Reduction Act. At 100% more than anything Republicans would ever do as far as green industrial policy, Biden made $240 billion available for clean energy manufacturing. Solar and electric vehicles incentives are also a part of this legislation. Also unlike Republicans, such massive spending is supposed to reduce the deficit by $288 billion over 10 years. Talk about fiscal conservatism. Just to be clear, 100% of Republicans voted against this legislation.
Economically, Biden has done more for Americans as Americans collectively rather than individually with investment in public infrastructure and through industrial policy that most modern presidents, especially every Republican since Reagan. More than likely, the benefits of such legislation won’t be felt for years; such is the nature of industrial policy.
Also, just for the record, he’s the only sitting president to have ever joined the any picket line, let alone the one of autoworkers.
The National Labor Relations Board under his administration just recently ordered Starbucks to open stores it illegally shut over union activity, and to remunerate them for loss of pay since those stores have been closed. Do you know how incredible that is?!
And, finally, Lina Khan, Biden-nominated director of the Federal Trade Commission is trying to upend the enduring anti-trust paradigm that fails to recognize how Big Tech like Google and Amazon are in fact engaged in anti-competitive strategies. Everybody knows Amazon is a monopoly. But legally, it’s harder to prove, and Khan has taken up the challenge, to the benefit of all Americans.
He also nominated, and the Senate confirmed, the judicial powerhouse that is Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, who goes toe-to-toe with the misanthropic conservative justices. She’s now the one on the bench bringing the real heat to Alito and Thomas and their stupid-ass originalism doctrine. This was a strong strategic accomplishment.
Like god damn…does anyone think Trump or Nikki Haley would do any of this?
Let me be clear, though: I’m not saying we should trade Palestinian lives for strong domestic policies and well-chosen, strategic nominations. I’m saying that the alternative includes the destruction of Palestine and much worse across the board. And at least [Biden has the wherewithall to let Israel know it’s being an international asshole rather than anything any of the Republican candidates said during their fourth debate.
I’m not being alarmist about Trump. The alarm has been sounded. We’re all just deaf to it now. But we don’t need ears to see that Trump is bad in every way Biden is and significantly worse in others.
People like to forget the recession that didn’t happen last year because Biden’s administration busted it’s ASS to keep Trump’s economy from imploding our country for a decade. Instead it’s “we have high inflation because Biden didn’t do enough to fix Trump’s economy.”
As a consequence, he’s done more for childhood poverty than any president within the last 50 years.
Which is more an indictment of those presidents than it is praise for Biden.
Twelve million children are still food insecure. In the “greatest” country on earth.
What a joke of a government.
You become president then. You have my vote.
Please god do not make me president.
Thanks to Biden’s, and definitely not Trump’s or any other Republican’s, American Rescue Plan, Biden increased the Earned-Income Tax Credit for those without children from $543 to $1,502, a $3,000 tax credit per child for children 6 and over, and a $3,600 per child for children under six. As a consequence, he’s done more for childhood poverty than any president within the last 50 years.
Once again. You’re turning this into a binary choice that does not exist. In any case, you’re also acting like the American Rescue Plan was Biden’s work alone. It was far from it, and those provisions you’re touting? First pushed for- and won by… that’s right … progressives. He’s also done this at a time when he had full control of the house and senate. the biggest argument people make for Biden is his vast experience working across the aisle. Most of the heavy heavy lifting was done by Pelosi, Shumer and Sanders. But go ahead, give credit to BIden and only Biden on that.
Let’s turn to the Inflation Reduction Act. At 100% more than anything Republicans would ever do as far as green industrial policy, Biden made $240 billion available for clean energy manufacturing. Solar and electric vehicles incentives are also a part of this legislation. Also unlike Republicans, such massive spending is supposed to reduce the deficit by $288 billion over 10 years. Talk about fiscal conservatism. Just to be clear, 100% of Republicans voted against this legislation.
ONCE AGAIN. this isn’t about republicans. I’ll try not to bring that up again. No promises. In any case the clean energy spending is tax incentives and funding for things people (mostly corporations) were going to do anyhow. Or do you think corporations aren’t looking at climate change and making plans? Further aspects of the IRA are hilarious the 15% minimum corpo tax for mega-corps? yeah. Corporate tax rate is supposed to be 21% since 2017… ask yourself how exactly a 15% minimum tax when the tax is supposed to be 21% is going to net more money? particularly when tax enforcement in these sectors is… insanely pathetic.
Oh, and Biden didn’t do nearly as much of the heavy lifting, and if you want to give Biden credit, lets give him some blame too, considering that it almost didn’t pass with Manchin and Sinema being party hold outs.
Economically, Biden has done more for Americans as Americans collectively rather than individually with investment in public infrastructure and through industrial policy that most modern presidents, especially every Republican since Reagan. More than likely, the benefits of such legislation won’t be felt for years; such is the nature of industrial policy.
to the benefit of corporations. Oh, and you some how managed to make this about republicans again. It’s no secret the US is behind on infrastructure spending. should I applaud and celebrate the fast food line cook who manages to make my order adequately? Nope. compensation was already given for that. You’ll notice, also, that this push for infrastructure started with… progressives. and made possible with their heavy lifting.
Also, just for the record, he’s the only sitting president to have ever joined the any picket line, let alone the one of autoworkers.
Pure political showmanship.
He also shat over the rail unions when they were asking for things like sick leave and shit. He could have just as easily used his authority to force the corporations to give labor what they wanted. Which is hilarious, because honestly… it’s not like labor was asking for anything that wasn’t just part of good business strategies or, you know… something that’ll help keep trains from derailing… but nope. he forced the Union to take a shittier deal. (Yeah, they more or less got what they wanted later, but that was after the negotiations were done.)The National Labor Relations Board under his administration just recently ordered Starbucks to open stores it illegally shut over union activity, and to remunerate them for loss of pay since those stores have been closed. Do you know how incredible that is?!
I do. But the NLRB is an independent agency. The best that could be said about that is that Biden had the opportunity to appoint 2 members to the current board. It’s difficult to say whether better or worse appointments could have been made by another. As it stands, it was with a senate that was able to rubber stamp the democratic nominations. funny how that works.
And, finally, Lina Khan, Biden-nominated director of the Federal Trade Commission is trying to upend the enduring anti-trust paradigm that fails to recognize how Big Tech like Google and Amazon are in fact engaged in anti-competitive strategies. Everybody knows Amazon is a monopoly. But legally, it’s harder to prove, and Khan has taken up the challenge, to the benefit of all Americans.
Again, the FTC is an independent agency. and again. it’s difficult to argue that another democratic president would not have appointed the same person. There is a lot of people who start that process before the president even considers a name.
He also nominated, and the Senate confirmed, the judicial powerhouse that is Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, who goes toe-to-toe with the misanthropic conservative justices. She’s now the one on the bench bringing the real heat to Alito and Thomas and their stupid-ass originalism doctrine. This was a strong strategic accomplishment.
Yeah. I like her. she’s awesome. This was partly the result of Biden actually honoring a campaign promise to… oh, that’s right… progressives who wanted a more diverse set of backgrounds on SCOTUS.
Like god damn…does anyone think Trump or Nikki Haley would do any of this?
You just have to keep circling back to that, don’t you?
Let me be clear, though: I’m not saying we should trade Palestinian lives for strong domestic policies and well-chosen, strategic nominations. I’m saying that the alternative includes the destruction of Palestine and much worse across the board. And at least [Biden has the wherewithall to let Israel know it’s being an international asshole rather than anything any of the Republican candidates said during their fourth debate.
Just because Biden is less-supportive than republicans doesn’t mean he’s not on the wrong side of history there. Oh, and by the way, did you see the headline where we’re expediting arms shipments?
I’m not being alarmist about Trump. The alarm has been sounded. We’re all just deaf to it now. But we don’t need ears to see that Trump is bad in every way Biden is and significantly worse in others.
Yet, half of your arguments in this entire comment relate Biden to being better than trump. Which leads us to back to: there are millions of eligible Americans who are also not-trump. this is a very bad argument to be making… and lets be honest here… the reason people are trying to primary Biden isn’t because they’re disloyal so much as biden is fucking weak and they see blood in the water.
It’s a poll about Biden’s stance with voters as president. It absolutely is about Biden versus Trump.
It’s about how unpopular Biden is with voters. the people who don’t like Biden, dislike trump even more. it’s really that simple. you can ignore the lions share of the progressive voters all you want, it’s not going to end well. if you truly don’t want Trump to succeed… then you should be down with considering who is the best candidate to defeat him, and nothing you have said is all that convincing that it is in fact Biden.
Domestically, the economy objectively sucks for the vast majority of Americans… trying to convince people how great the economy is, when there’s record numbers of homelessness, and more Americans living paycheck to paycheck, people are struggling. but we’re supposed to feel good because corporations are having record years? Fuck off.
foreign policy, he fucked the pooch with Israel. there’s no way around that. he vowed unequivocal, and enduring support to a government that was plotting genocide. I don’t have any good answers, but supporting Israel is not it. (as I’ve been saying since october… neither Hamas nor Israel are the good guys. they’re both perpetrators. Civilians are the real victims here… on both sides.)
You’re turning this into a binary choice that does not exist.
Well, maybe it’s not a binary choice, but it is certainly a choice that does exist.
It’s about how unpopular Biden is with voters.
Well…yes…with the implication that Biden’s unpopularity is a boon for his political opposition. Maybe not Trump per se, but certainly Biden v Republicans.
then you should be down with considering who is the best candidate to defeat him, and nothing you have said is all that convincing that it is in fact Biden.
I thought you said it wasn’t about this…
Anyway…by sheer political inertia, Biden has an institutional advantage against any Republican contender. Like…before we argue about anything, Biden’s chances of winning are better simply by default. You have the burden of proving that he’s so weak as a candidate that even that advantage is gone. No one ever makes that argument, they just assert it as true. But I’m not convinced it is.
Domestically, the economy objectively sucks for the vast majority of Americans
The weird thing is that this isn’t Biden’s fault…well…not entirely his fault. A podcast I listen to every now and then said that this is the era of business, and I’m inclined to agree. American Free Enterprise is all about value extraction, and they’ve been so successful that Trump sells pieces of his suit at $5000 a piece to fools and it’s totally okay. Business values have effectively superseded political values, and there’s a lot of people responsible for that.
I don’t disagree with anything else you said.
It’s wild. I literally don’t understand how we make the messaging better.
Republicans: Ban abortion, make us poorer, start unnecessary conflict, pass as much transphobic legislation as possible, try to overthrow our democracy…
Democrats: Do the opposite of all of that
The mainstream media: Points this out
Moderates: “I don’t listen to the lamestream media. Both parties are the same. I’m going to vote for the funny orange guy.”
Take student loan forgiveness as an example. Biden stretched out the pause period multiple times, tried at least three different times to get something through, and is destroying Trump’s record for at the very least giving already qualified people the loan forgiveness they deserve. Meanwhile the Republicans refused to negotiate, stonewalled, and threw public fits the whole time. The media reported on all of this, every step of the way, yet it feels like all you hear in comment sections is “Biden lied about student loan forgiveness.” or “Biden didn’t fight hard enough for student loan forgiveness.”
Democrats: Do the opposite of all of that
Democrats don’t do the opposite of all of that. Not on the national level, at least, which is what we’re talking about. Republicans ban abortion. Democrats didn’t pass legislation to codify Roe. Republicans pass as much transpohobic legislation as possible. Democrats haven’t passed legislation to protect trans people. Republicans make us poorer. Yet too many people are still getting poorer while the economy is doing just great for rich people and so we are expected to rejoice. Republicans are in the middle of sustained efforts to overthrow our democracy. Democrats haven’t passed the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, which would have strengthened democracy. But the filibuster, cornerstone of Jim Crow, remains intact and sacrosanct. The only way that Democrats do the opposite of what Republicans do is on the technicality that inaction is the opposite of action.
And that’s not even the messaging Democrats are using. The only messaging I’m seeing is “Fuck you, moron. Trump is worse and you have no choice lol.”
They needed more than a simple majority to codify roe. Same thing for trans issues, the John Lewis voting rights act, etc. etc. We can talk about removing the filibuster, but imagine the state of trans rights, voting rights, the economy, etc. when Republicans only need a simple majority to pass their legislation.
It’s important to keep in mind that Republicans to gather support only need to stonewall Democrats. “We blocked the trans bill, we blocked the voting rights act that would have let illegals vote, we blocked them from allowing the murder of babies.” Iirc economic matters only require simple majorities, so tax cuts for the rich are super easy for them to get through when they are in power.
Tbh the messaging itself I haven’t seen much of, but “I’m not a Republican” is enough of a message for me since January 6th.
They needed more than a simple majority to codify roe. Same thing for trans issues, the John Lewis voting rights act, etc. etc. We can talk about removing the filibuster, but imagine the state of trans rights, voting rights, the economy, etc. when Republicans only need a simple majority to pass their legislation.
Republicans could have done away with the filibuster any time they had a majority. Why do you suppose they haven’t? They’re not concerned about what Democrats might do. They’re don’t use decorum or procedural nonsense to get in their own way.
It’s important to keep in mind that Republicans to gather support only need to stonewall Democrats.
And the filibuster gives them the means to do so. Republicans use the filibuster to block progress. Democrats use the filibuster as an excuse to let Republicans block progress.
Tbh the messaging itself I haven’t seen much of, but “I’m not a Republican” is enough of a message for me since January 6th.
Good for you. Worked on me, as well. It’s not sufficient messaging for everyone whose votes we need. We need to get votes back. Now ignore that I’m voting for Biden because you want to dismiss what I’m saying.
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Biden tried to pass the 400bil relief, but when that was knocked down hes still done 5bil here, 8bil there. His total as of this week is 132bil forgiven and counting.
Not 400bil, but if he had just promised to forgive 100bil, he would be lauded back and forth, and hes still going.
Is it just a message issues? Biden keep clamoring economy is well but working class feel the pain of housing and inflation. And as for foreign policy Biden turned out to be very hawkish in many fronts no matter how you package this it looks bad.
I don’t like Biden, but I’ll never vote for Trump. I straight up don’t like the people he represents, and I don’t like their vision of America’s future.
His presidency showed me that he is straight up uneducated in anything the job entails. And I feel like his vengeance term will be a nightmare of repression and overturning good things for the people just out of spite.
Also, what kind of person who didn’t vote for him last election looks at his presidency and what he’s become, and says oh yeah I want to vote for him now? Like what?
I mean I understand abstaining from voting because you don’t like Biden, but to vote for that?! Yikes
I’d rather see all these “poll” posts prohibited until we get closer to primary elections. It’s annoying there seems to be at least one active post on any given day on such useless topics.
The Biden campaign is running on fumes right now, I can’t imagine their energy getting any better. And this is coming from someone who believed his first 18 months in office were incredible.
Dudes forgiven 132billion in student loans so far and drastically reduced costs for people who still have to pay them, he passed a huge infastructure/climate change bill, empowered the fcc to fix net neutrality and ftc to break up monopolies, got the usps to buy 75% electric vehicles, hugely boosted high speed rail, hugely boosted charging station deployments, got cpu manufacturing going in the states, enables the strongest union supporting national labor board since FDR, has vigorously supported right to repair laws, and it looks like his fed may have broken our run away inflation.
His successes go on and on. What fumes are you talking about?
Get out of your bubble and look at his poll numbers, they are showing real weakness. A very large chunk of his own base are apathetic him. Ignoring your voters and pretending there is not a single thing he can do better is the very definition a low energy campaign. The USA can’t risk another Hillary-esque campaign when Trump is threatening a dictatorship on day one.
There is a reason pollsters don’t straight up ask who you’re voting for. They can’t spin that response into “feelings”.
Polls a year out are meaningless. IIRC Obama was “losing” at this point before his re-election & Biden has frankly accomplished just as much good in his first term as Obama did.
Also, the Democrats are beating polls by 9+ points at the ballot box since Roe vs. Wade was overturned.
People are currently mad we didn’t immediately throw over our closest ally in the Middle East now that they have apparently decided to go full evil empire but that has never been how geopolitics has worked.
